What is our climate vision for the NDCs?…By Soha Nisar
As Pakistan stands at the precipice of 2025, the urgency to confront the climate crisis has never been more pronounced. The revised Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs), which form the backbone of Pakistan’s climate ambitions, offer a roadmap to navigate the existential threat posed by climate change.
The revised NDCs reflect Pakistan’s recognition of the urgency of the climate crisis. The country has committed to reducing its greenhouse gas emissions by 60 per cent by 2030, with 35 per cent of this target contingent on international financial support. These targets, while ambitious, are not merely symbolic; they represent the potential to reshape Pakistan’s future. However, a deeper look at the alignment of these targets with the country’s broader economic policies reveals a troubling disconnect.
The absence of a coordinated approach between the NDCs and Pakistan’s five-year development plans, particularly the 13th Economic Development Plan, exposes a glaring vulnerability. This target places significant pressure on the government to ensure that the necessary investments and policies are in place. The country’s climate strategy risks being undermined by an incoherent policy framework that fails to integrate climate action into the very DNA of its economic ambitions.
Pakistan’s political landscape, fraught with macroeconomic instability and external pressures such as the IMF’s financial programmes, has often undermined the integration of climate considerations into national economic planning. With the 18th Amendment in place, the fragmentation of governance has made it even more challenging to implement climate policies effectively at the provincial level.
Without robust mechanisms to align national climate goals with provincial priorities, the nation’s climate strategy is bound to remain a collection of lofty promises rather than a cohesive blueprint for action. The 2025 climate action agenda must rectify this by embedding climate action in the national and provincial planning documents, ensuring that climate resilience is prioritised at every level of governance.
In this context, the country’s energy transition, a critical pillar of the NDCs, must take centre stage. Pakistan has set an ambitious target of achieving 60 per cent renewable energy in its national energy mix and 30 per cent electric vehicles by 2030, goals that are not just technical challenges, but moral imperatives.
The energy sector is the largest contributor to Pakistan’s carbon emissions, and addressing this issue will require a paradigm shift. We cannot afford to continue down the path of coal dependency. The government’s commitment to phasing out coal imports is a step in the right direction, but it must be followed by decisive action: building the infrastructure for renewable energy, incentivising the adoption of electric vehicles, and ensuring that green energy solutions are accessible to all. Without these investments, Pakistan risks locking itself into a future of fossil-fuel dependence, undermining its own climate goals in the process.
Pakistan’s vulnerability to climate impacts is already starkly visible in the agricultural sector, which remains the backbone of its economy. The NDCs’ focus on adaptation, including the enhancement of water management systems and the protection of vulnerable ecosystems, is essential. However, these measures will be meaningless unless they are implemented with urgency and foresight.
The challenge is not just about building infrastructure but about building resilience from the ground up. Empowering local communities, particularly in the rural areas where climate change is having the most severe effects, must be at the heart of Pakistan’s climate strategy. Local governments, often sidelined in the policymaking process, must be equipped with resources and authority to lead climate adaptation efforts. These communities, with their intimate knowledge of the land and the challenges they face, must be the vanguard of resilience-building in the face of increasingly frequent and severe climate-related disasters.
One of the most pressing challenges for Pakistan in 2025 is the credibility gap in its NDCs. While the country has set bold targets, its track record in meeting previous commitments is less than stellar. The failure to implement the NDC 2.0, coupled with an inability to develop actionable plans at the provincial level and insufficient budgetary estimates has weakened Pakistan’s position in international climate negotiations.
The credibility gap is not just a matter of optics; it directly impacts Pakistan’s ability to secure international climate finance. Without closing this gap, Pakistan risks becoming a bystander in the global climate dialogue, unable to access the funds and resources necessary to implement its climate ambitions.
In 2025, Pakistan has the opportunity to course-correct, but it will require more than just political rhetoric. The new NDCs must be grounded in realistic, science-based targets, with clear action plans, financial commitments, and a robust monitoring framework to close this gap and restore trust with the international community. Pakistan must demonstrate its commitment through concrete actions instead of setting targets. The financial resources necessary to achieve these goals must be mobilised from both domestic and international sources.
The country must tap into global climate funds, such as the UNFCCC’s Green Climate Fund and Loss and Damage Fund, as well as implementing carbon pricing mechanisms such as taxes and levies. Pakistan must also incentivise the private sector to invest in climate adaptation and mitigation projects and develop the necessary infrastructure for carbon trading markets.
However, financial resources alone will not be enough. Pakistan must also ensure that the benefits of climate action are distributed equitably, particularly to those most affected by climate change, such as marginalised communities, women, and youth.
As Pakistan enters 2025, it faces a crossroads. The climate crisis is not waiting for anyone, and the window of opportunity to act is rapidly closing. The country’s NDCs represent a critical moment. It is a chance to either demonstrate global leadership or fall further behind. The stakes are high, not just for Pakistan, but for the entire planet.
Climate change is not a distant threat; it is already shaping our reality. From extreme weather events to rising sea levels, the impacts are being felt every day. Yet, even in the face of these challenges, there is hope. Pakistan has the potential to be a leader in climate action, but this will require a paradigm shift- one that prioritises justice, equity, and the long-term sustainability of the planet.
Pakistan cannot afford to wait any longer. It must lead the charge toward a green, sustainable future, not just for the sake of its people, but for the sake of the entire planet. The question is not whether we can afford to act; it’s whether we can afford not to.
COURTESY THE NEWS