The war in the Middle East …. Shahzad Chaudhry

Rather than find adulatory or denigrative classifications to the mayhem in the Middle East, Tom Friedman of the NYT clubs the two sides as the ‘coalition of inclusion’ and ‘coalition of resistance’; it is easy enough to know which side is which. I have largely held through this one year of war as Bibi Netanyahu’s desperate last act to find relevance, stay in power at whatever and with whoever he can coalesce, and keep out of jail. The pedigree that he seeks from this route though is poorly blotted. Churchill from among all stands out as the single most successful politician from WWII who yet lost the election as soon as the war was over. He began to be labeled a war-time leader only who had run his course as soon as the war ended. Bibi may not agree and thus is intent on doing what he thinks will win him the epitaph and hence the perpetuity of a leader Israel cannot do without. In that he will also avoid jail, he hopes.

Netanyahu’s current tenure in power came out of the fifth general election in four years between 2018 and 2022. In each case the side winning elections lacked clear majority and was easily put down by a strong opposition. Not many in Israel like Bibi. He is a hawk and an opportunist. He is the longest serving prime minister in Israel’s history who is also an intensely polarising figure in Israeli politics. He is also under arraignment for charges of corruption along with his wife and as soon as he is not the prime minister he will be in the dock before country’s courts on those charges. He is in government with the support of the extremist right-wing coalition which favours decimating all and any opposition to Israel. Netanyahu was before country’s highest courts when briefly out of power till he was able to contrive a coalition and return to power to save from being jailed after what seemed a certain conviction. If he loses the next election his time in jail is likely to be long, this time with an added indictment and conviction for genocide of innocent civilians – a hand he is played as a ploy for far too long.

He faces twin threats domestically: he tried amending the constitution to bring the country’s supreme court under him through manipulating inductions to the court, and has been fiercely opposed by the people in widely held demonstrations against such mala fide engineering of the constitution; and, for the failure to bring about a ceasefire in Gaza to recover Israeli hostages held by Hamas in a quid pro quo. It has reignited the hate for him which has been resident but stood temporarily doused because of the ongoing war that Netanyahu began. There is also a significant sentiment within Israel to coexist with the Palestinians in a formal arrangement if not entirely in a two-state construct even as they delight at Israel’s long-held enemies being put down in a predatory war against Gazans and Israel’s neighbours.

His opposition includes former prime ministers who mostly disagree with his strategy of continuous wars and his failure to capitalise on political options which Israel’s strong military creates. It is generally felt that any election will oust Netanyahu from power. Hence Bibi’s effort to delay elections somehow complete his current five-year term, and at the back of laurels that Israel’s remarkable military enables repair his image and credentials to the point that the people will elect him back – his poll numbers are four percentage higher than a year back when the war began. That will keep him out of certain jail as well as keep power to enforce his agenda of engineering changes to the constitution to his personal benefit. In that sense the ongoing war is meant to serve his personal interest. Hence, the expanding cycle of wars in and around the Middle East.

As Netanyahu indulges in massacres around Israel in Gaza and Lebanon, eliminating with impunity leadership of groups that have allegedly been sponsored and raised by Iran and act as Iran’s proxies, he hopes to build himself in Israeli perceptions a saviour who has ensured the survival of the Israeli state. Nothing comes closer in sensitivity to all hues of Israelis than this one aspect of sustaining Israeli nationhood. Nourished on the tales of Masada Israel considers itself perpetually besieged seeking the ultimate sacrifice from its people. Whether Netanyahu can pull off this ploy will need to be seen but going by the Churchillian rule he may be disappointed.

So why the sudden expansion into Lebanon and Yemen, finally forcing Iran’s hand when she could possibly take no more under intense domestic pressure? Iran responded in kind through the missile barrage that finally landed in Israel on an October night? Netanyahu on the eve of bringing war closer to Iran has promised Iranians a regime change, perhaps alluding to the sequential consequence of how Iran might finally be provoked into a war giving Netanyahu his ultimate prize, and how might situation in Iran evolve to displace the Ayatollahs from power. Would he also force the US hand too to join in will decide if his purpose is realised. Sadly, a waning US presidency can hardly offer any resistance to Israel’s and Netanyahu’s insidious design and may just sleepwalk into the trap.

Either way, Netanyahu is the winner in the short-to-medium term. He reinforces his image in the mold of a modern-day David. He slays the Iranian Goliath and finally forces the US to join in on his side. This is a win-win for Israel in strategic terms. Whether it will help him in his political purpose at home will remain to be seen. Expansion of the war to Iran and engaging its wide array of support in neighbouring countries where either groups or nations support Iran’s cause is also a major political move with strategic ramifications.

As a larger war looms and WWIII gets talked of it defines the leadership that must emerge in the upcoming US elections. Even if the US is an implied player in an expanding war it will impose the need in the US for a president who can lead to a favourable outcome. It shall be US’ baby to deliver. If that propels Donald Trump as someone suitable for the role, well this is the least Netanyahu could do for an old and trusted friend. The ramifications are huge, the purpose patently political domestically and globally, while nations and people – men, women and kids – burn and bleed to the pleasure of a madman’s impulse. Reminds me of how Obama won his second term.

Courtesy Express Tribune