The Taliban concern…Touqir Hussain
REGARDLESS of who has ruled Afghanistan, it has always been a problem neighbour. The Pakistani establishment may have thought the problem would be solved with the Afghan Talibans return to power but it has worsened. Afghanistan has become both a critical foreign policy challenge and a serious domestic policy concern.
There are many issues between the Talibans Afghanistan and Pakistan but the main point of contention is Kabuls harbouring of the TTP, whose acts of terrorism against Chinese nationals and projects are hurting Pakistans most important relationship. Their alleged nexus with Baloch insurgents and extremist groups in former Fata threaten Pakistans internal security and its already fragile development prospects.
Diplomacy, economic pressure, military action, and threats of isolation have not moved the Taliban to act against the TTP. Their advice to Pakistan to talk to the TTP is an attempt to deflect pressure from themselves. They know from their own experience that such groups do not believe in talks, unless held on their terms.
There are complex reasons for their lack of action. There are ideological links between the Taliban and TTP as well as historical reasons. Even during the Raj, Afghanistan offered protection to any Pakhtun fleeing Pakhtun-majority areas in the subcontinent.
There are complex reasons for the Talibans lack of action against TTP.
The Taliban lack both the political will and capacity to act against the TTP. They are worried about domestic threats and fissures within their own ranks. The TTP reportedly enjoy strategic affinity with the Islamic State-Khorasan and could merge with it if threatened by the Taliban, taking disaffected Taliban members with them.
The Taliban may even benefit from the TTPs presence in Afghanistan. They treat them and other militant groups operating from Afghan soil as allies to meet potential external aggression and obtain concessions recognition, commercial ties, etc from regional countries. The group is the Talibans leverage against Pakistan and Washington.
Did our security establishment miss something? They failed to see how much Afghanistan, and indeed Pakistan, changed following the overthrow of the monarchy in 1973 because of the Soviet invasion, Americas two Afghan wars and the war on terrorism, and Pakistans strategic ambitions. And how Pakistans jihadist currents mingled with the militant groups and transnational terrorist networks produced by these wars and the global Islamist revival. All this led to the creation of the Taliban who, in time, became the flagship of the extremist network in the region.
As an insurgent group, the Taliban s dependency on Pakistan gave Islamabad false hope that they would remain compliant even as a government. It may have worked the first time but Pakistan incurred reputational and diplomatic damage for questionable benefits. Much has changed since.
The Afghanistan of 2021 was not the same as when the Taliban first came to power. The Taliban have greater internal challenges now and more international acceptance, and thus different priorities. Nor is it the same Pakistan, which is struggling on multiple fronts. This has necessitated a different approach by the Taliban towards Pakistan and the region. Thanks to their shrewd diplomacy, countries, including India and Iran who opposed the Taliban the first time, have been anxious to connect with them this time. The Taliban have been successfully cultivating a network of allies including China.
The Taliban wont act against the TTP. Pakistan itself will have to do it. Kinetic measures are necessary but not enough. They should be an adjunct to political action that must be taken to address the grievances of disaffected groups among the Pakhtun and Baloch communities. The TTP needs to be politically isolated from these communities, which can only be done by addressing their grievances via increased socioeconomic opportunities, reduced political marginalisation, and better governance.
Pakistans body politic has been hollowed out by decades of authoritarian rule and deformed democracy, leading to a weakened institutional architecture. With institutions crumbling, the rule of law and social stability have been degraded and are preyed upon by extremist forces. But the state is lacking in political will, moral authority, and effective instruments of law and order, resulting in the strengthening of the extremist infrastructure.
A weakened Pakistan will enhance the Talibans leverage by exposing the country to instability and extremist influences. Pakistans struggle with the Talibans Afghanistan must begin at home. Pakistan has been fighting terrorism but not the groups or extremist societal attitudes that inspire it. That must change.
The writer, a former ambassador, is adjunct professor Georgetown University and Visiting Senior Research Fellow, National University of Singapore.
Courtesy Dawn