Targeting Sevastopol: deliberate attempt to escalate war? …. Dr Muhammad Ali Ehsan

On 23 June Ukraine used five US-supplied Army Tactical Missile System (ATACMs) missiles targeting the city of Sevastopol in Crimea. Sevastopol is the Black Sea port city and Headquarters of the Russian Black Sea Fleet. Russian Air Defense System was able to intercept and destroy four of the missiles but the fifth one deviated from its flight path and detonated, breaking up into deadly debris over the beach of Uchkuevka. Civilians including women and children who were spending the weekend and a Christian holiday on the beach became victims of this heinous attack carried out by Ukraine. At least five people died and over 125 were injured.

Four things are critical in this latest Ukrainian attack. One, the attack was carried out using a long range Western supplied weapon system — ATACMs — which has arrange of 186 miles (300 km). Two, the attack was carried out deep inside the Russian territory. Three, the attack was launched on a Christian holiday. And fourth, the victims of attack are innocent civilians. As a consequence of such an attack any military mind can make one clear military assumption: through the attack in Sevastopol with US supplied missiles, Kiev has chosen to escalate this war to a dangerous level. What can be a Russian response? But before that, did the moral world get an opportunity to witness this crime against innocent civilians and condemn it?

The moral world that the US and its Western allies lead supports the Israeli invasion of Gaza which has displaced 80% of the Gaza population and killed over 37,000 people, dropping 70,000 tons of bombs on Gaza. This US-led moral world has not been able to arrange a ceasefire despite this human carnage which has now limited Gaza’s access to water, food and electricity, thus leaving an entire population on the brink of a famine. If the US and its allies are shy of condemning this disproportionate response by the Israeli defence forces and Israel’s immoral conduct, why would they condemn what Ukraine has done in Sevastopol over this weekend? The war in Ukraine is being fought under the deep shadow of information warfare in which the US and its Western allies that control most of the global media try to gain competitive advantage through misinformation and propaganda over their adversaries. Considering this it is important to highlight the heinous crimes being committed by the US and its allies where ever they take place.

The Russian Defense Ministry has condemned the US for enabling Ukraine to execute this attack, besides pointing out the double standards and ‘relative silence’ of Western media on the violation of international law on the killings of Russian tourists who were innocent civilians. The US cannot evade the blame for this attack because it is the supplier, the planner and the executor of reconnaissance as well as the target selector. Kiev on its own would not and cannot undertake such a military action that can lead to the war’s escalation. Has Ukraine decided to resort to committing act of terrorism? There is already a precedence.

President Vladimir Putin and Russia’s declared position on the war in Ukraine is that the war didn’t start on 22 Feb 2022. Ukraine was already conducting anti-terrorist operations against its own people in the eastern region of Ukraine and were shelling their own people for the last eight years and Russia started the special military operation on 22 Feb 2022 not to start the war but to end it. The Western propaganda conveniently blacks out the terrorist acts of the puppet Ukrainian regime against its own people and promotes the narrative of a Russian invasion on baseless grounds. The ground was not baseless as 60% of the Russians living in eastern Ukraine were being subjected to ‘Gaza like’ Israeli treatment and President Putin and Russia decided that they will not allow this.

So far the US has spent tens of billions of dollars to help Ukraine recapture its lost territory. Recapturing the lost territory is a Ukrainian military aim but it neither has the resources nor the manpower to achieve this aim. So, what does the US and its NATO allies want who are patronising Ukraine for a military aim that is unachievable. The US and its NATO allies should be cautious not to light the fuse that can detonate a global war. It has already detonated a war in Gaza by encouraging and emboldening Israel to do what it ended up doing. With this current ATACMs attack, the US has directly become part of the conflict. Russia’s likely response can be read in President Putin’s recent statement that Russia might supply weapons to North Korea in what he suggested would be a like-for-like response to the Western arming of Ukraine. Military history is filled with the examples of how an aggression at one place served as an invitation to respond aggressively at another place.

The US and its NATO allies need to tread the war path carefully. Russia cannot be defeated by Ukraine and there is no point increasing the medicine dose when the medicine is not working. The idea of supplying Patriot batteries or F-16s are measures that will not end this war. The US and its NATO allies have already gladly welcomed Sweden as the 32nd member of NATO in March 2024. The US and NATO are happy encircling Russia. In Sweden, NATO welcomes an additional fighting force in the Baltic Sea. Sweden boasts a first-class air force and 5 modern submarines that are suited to Baltic Sea’s shallow waters. It also commands the strategic island of Gotland in the middle of the Baltic Sea about 100 km from Swedish mainland and 300 km from the Russian enclave of Kaliningrad which is home to Russian Baltic Sea Fleet. Baltic is the most efficient supply route for the Russians and a shared waterway that connects Russia with Europe. Russia will push back any NATO attempts to curtail its access to Baltic.

The US has not respected China as a great power and instead of competing it is trying to contain it. The US has not respected Russia and even insults it by encroaching its sphere of influence and creating existential threats. It is up to the US to decide whether it wants the conflict in Ukraine to grow in severity as Russia may no longer tolerate the future deep targeting of its territory with the American supplied missiles. Russia will retain the right to respond and that may plunge the world into another global war. Time for the US and its allies to seriously reflect how not to prolong but end the war in Ukraine.

Courtesy Express Tribune