Snap poll conducted by Gallup Pakistan in 100 districts across 4 provinces shows Nawaz Sharif’s arrival in Pak improves political fortunes of PML-N

ISLAMABAD, Nov 24 (SABAH): According to Gallup Pakistan, Pakistan’s population in 2023 reached 241.5 million, showing a significant increase of 33.82 million from the 2017.

Punjab recorded the highest population increase with 17.7 million, followed by Sindh with 7.8 million, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa with 5.36 million, Balochistan with 2.55 million, and Islamabad Capital Territory (ICT) with 0.36 million.

According to Gallup Pakistan, Postgraduate Medical Institute & Ameeruddin Medical College Principal Professor Muhammad Al-Fareed Zafar has disclosed that every 4th person in Pakistan is suffering from diabetes which causes eye problems, heart and kidney diseases.

From 1981 to 1986, Jahangir Khan of Pakistan was unbeaten in squash and during that time, he won 555 consecutive matches – the longest winning streak by any athlete in top-level professional sport.

Pakistan made history when Mohammed Ilyas passed the civil judge exam when he was 20 years and 9 months old. He became the youngest civil judge in the world.

A snap poll conducted with a scientifically selected sample of 1000 men and women spread in 100 districts across 4 provinces using phone survey methodology shows Nawaz Sharif’s arrival in Pakistan improves the political fortunes of PML-N. The survey was conducted on 22nd October 2023, the day after the former Prime Minister’s arrival in Pakistan and his speech at Minar-e-Pakistan.

Bilal Gilani, Executive Director of Gallup Pakistan, sheds light on why the sample size of opinion polls is perfectly adequate to measure public sentiment for the entire country.

Bilal Gilani explained, “The science of statistical sampling tells us that if these 3500 people are selected randomly, then the 3500 can represent those 240 or so million. If we survey the 240 million Pakistanis as well, we will get the same opinions that are expressed by the 3000. That is why this sample is a very good measure for a forecast, prediction, or estimation. Previously, our results have proven that this method is accurate.”

Is the sample size of Gallup polls large enough?

The sample size used in Gallup surveys is quite adequate even in comparison to international standards. Gallup US Daily poll is 500 and the Gallup Poll Social Series is 1000, both having track record of reliable predictability for USA (a country nearly 100 million larger in population of Pakistan). According to Five Thirty-Eight, one of the most credible sources on polling in the US:

“Surveying 2,000 voters substantially reduces error compared with surveying 400 of them but surveying 10,000 voters will produce only marginal improvements in accuracy compared with the 2,000- person survey”.

Is a larger sample always better than a smaller sample?

Larger samples are generally more precise, but sometimes not. The important rule in sampling is not how many poll respondents are selected but, instead, how they are selected. A reliable sample selects poll respondents randomly or in a manner which ensures that everyone in the area being surveyed has a known chance of being selected.

In the fast-paced landscape of data and analytics, October 2023 has been a prolific month for Gallup Pakistan. As we continue our commitment to providing valuable insights into the multifaceted aspects of Pakistani society, we are pleased to present a comprehensive overview of our activities and releases over the past month.

In this edition, we highlight the diverse range of our contributions, featuring 22 daily polls covering themes from Health and Economy to Religion and Media. We also delve into historical perspectives with 8 polls on Social Behavior, Media, Religion, and Education, providing a comparative analysis with data from previous years.

Other releases in the section include the Newspaper Content Analysis and the FinDev and Health Cyber letters. In collaboration with D&B, our quarterly report on the Consumer Confidence Index provides a valuable tool for governments, businesses, and financial institutions to make informed decisions. In addition, we present 5 comprehensive reports analyzing datasets, including Pakistan Bureau of Statistics Social Indicators of Pakistan 2021, Census 2023, and Pakistan Demographic and Health Survey.

In October, we also proudly launched the Gallup Pakistan Digital Analytics Website, hosting dynamic data dashboards on PSLM insights, Global Hope Indicator, Electoral History, and the Flights Monitor. In a thought-provoking Fireside Chat hosted by the National Incubation Center for Aerospace Technologies, Executive Director Bilal Gilani explored the crucial role of data in our rapidly evolving world.

The team at Gallup Pakistan made an impact in the world of press and web by sharing insights through op-eds on key social and political issues, while our press release on female engineering graduates gained coverage across 30+ national and international news outlets.

October has been a month of rich data, insightful analyses, and impactful discussions. We invite you to explore the wealth of information we’ve compiled and engage with us as we continue to be at the forefront of data-driven insights in Pakistan.