Population and climate: looming catastrophe …Durdana Najam

Pakistan’s rapid population growth has long been a major concern, but its implications for climate change, urban planning, and economic sustainability are now reaching a breaking point. With nearly 250 million people and an annual growth rate exceeding 2%, Pakistan has one of the fastest-growing populations in the world. While policymakers often focus on the strain on infrastructure and resources, less attention is given to the irreversible environmental degradation caused by unchecked population growth. The depletion of green spaces, erratic weather patterns, and declining urban sustainability are all consequences of a population outpacing both planning efforts and available natural resources.

One of the most alarming consequences of population pressure is its effect on the climate. Already one of the most climate-vulnerable countries, Pakistan is experiencing extreme weather fluctuations. A recent four-month-long dry spell in Rawalpindi, once a region with regular rainfall, is a sign of this shift. Islamabad, a city historically known for its lush greenery, is seeing rising temperatures and reduced rainfall due to relentless urbanization. Trees that once helped regulate the microclimate have been sacrificed to accommodate the growing population, worsening heatwaves and reducing groundwater replenishment.

In addition to diminishing rainfall, Pakistan has experienced a surge in climate-induced disasters. Flash floods, worsened by deforestation and urban sprawl, have caused widespread devastation in major cities. The monsoon patterns, once predictable, are now erratic, leading to either catastrophic floods or prolonged droughts. This unpredictability directly impacts agriculture, the backbone of Pakistan’s economy, exacerbating food insecurity and inflation.

All major cities in Pakistan are now facing environmental collapse. Green belts are disappearing under the pressure of new housing developments that sprawl without consideration for ecological sustainability. In Islamabad, the Margalla Hills, a crucial carbon sink, have been encroached upon by uncontrolled construction. In Lahore, projects like the Ravi Riverfront are threatening centuries-old ecosystems in the name of ‘development.’

Karachi, Pakistan’s largest city and economic hub, faces its own set of environmental challenges. Overpopulation, pollution, and unregulated construction have taken a severe toll on the city’s fragile ecosystem. One of the most alarming issues is the receding sea, which is altering the coastline and increasing the risk of saltwater intrusion into freshwater supplies. Unchecked land reclamation projects and industrial encroachments have disrupted the natural balance, making the city more vulnerable to rising temperatures and flooding. Without proper coastal management and sustainable urban planning, Karachi risks an ecological disaster in the near future.

A growing population also increases the demand for resources. Ideally, a nation should allocate its funds to education, healthcare, and social welfare to improve the lives of its citizens. However, Pakistan finds itself trapped in a vicious cycle where resources are primarily spent on simply sustaining its expanding population. Basic necessities such as food, water, and energy are becoming more expensive, with inflation disproportionately affecting the poorest citizens. The government is forced to divert funds toward food subsidies and emergency relief rather than investing in long-term development projects. As a result, nearly half of Pakistan’s population now lives below the poverty line, unable to access quality education or healthcare.

Moreover, employment opportunities are not keeping up with population growth. With a large youth population entering the job market, there is an increasing mismatch between demand and supply. This not only fuels unemployment but also contributes to urban crime and social unrest, further destabilizing an already fragile society.

Pakistan must recognize that its development goals cannot be achieved without addressing the twin crises of overpopulation and environmental degradation. There is an urgent need for a national policy that prioritizes sustainable urban planning, family planning, and environmental conservation.

First, Pakistan must invest in population control programs, particularly in rural areas where birth rates remain high. Access to family planning services, women’s education, and awareness campaigns should be at the forefront of national policy. Countries such as Bangladesh and Iran, which have successfully reduced population growth, provide valuable lessons on how state intervention can yield positive results.

Second, urban expansion must be regulated. The government should enforce strict environmental impact assessments before approving new housing projects. Reforestation initiatives should be prioritized, and green belts must be protected through legislation. Incentivizing vertical rather than horizontal expansion could help conserve land while accommodating growing urban populations.

Third, climate resilience should be integrated into policy planning. Water conservation projects, afforestation initiatives, and investments in renewable energy can help mitigate some of the damage already done. Additionally, a shift toward sustainable agriculture, with an emphasis on water-efficient crops, can help balance food security with environmental conservation.

Pakistan’s overpopulation is not just an economic issue; it is an existential threat to the country’s environmental and social fabric. Without immediate action to regulate growth, protect natural ecosystems, and invest in long-term solutions, Pakistan will struggle to cope with the cascading crises of poverty, environmental degradation, and climate disasters. The time for intervention is now, before the damage becomes irreversible.

Courtesy Express Tribune