Pakistan in 2024…Farhan Bokhari
Pakistan is set to enter another year surrounded by deep-rooted challenges over its medium- to long-term future. The prospect of another political transition, with elections planned in February, is set to cause much noise — but without substance.
Ahead of the transition, rival political contenders for now are focused more on the race to seize power, without a clear plan for reforming the country. With all but one of the mainstream parties the PTI poised to grab power either by one or a more likely coalition to reach the magic number, the future of Pakistan is set to remain mired in continuing challenges.
People line up as election officials check their ballot papers during voting in the general election at a polling station in Lahore. AFP/File
People line up as election officials check their ballot papers during voting in the general election at a polling station in Lahore. AFP/File
The outcome beyond the elections is rooted in the character of Pakistans sorry politics. For long, a successive set of rulers have remained detached from the mounting issues surrounding the countrys mainstream inhabitants. With that much blemished history, it is hardly surprising that Pakistan is witnessing one of the worst economic challenges in its history, while the country’s political rivals are just obsessed with grabbing power.
To date, the main political rivals have repeatedly promised a more prosperous future though without clearly articulating exactly how that will be achieved. And judging by their past, the main political rivals have little to offer by way of their own history in demonstrating success stories focused on the people.
Going forward beyond elections, the reality of another IMF loan laced with tough conditions for ordinary consumers is already more than just inevitable. With Pakistan faced with recurring large foreign debt payments in the coming years, the country is caught between a huge rock and an exceptionally hard place.
For the future, the incoming rulers after elections in February must be prepared to embrace unprecedented reforms that eventually tackle Pakistans internal fiscal deficit and the countrys international current account and trade deficits. Together, these stand out as the mother of all evils in the way of tackling mounting economic distress.
This exercise however will have to work in tandem with an across-the-board push in tackling a dangerously widening divide between the rich and the poor that has triggered a grim outlook for internal stability. Pakistans repeated failure to tackle worsening food insecurity over recent years has raised the prospect of unrest with unpredictable consequences.
The occurrence of a flattened economy caused by industrial, agricultural and an overall economic decline in real terms has posed Pakistan with a toxic mix for its future. Ironically, the much bragged recent rise of Pakistans stock market may be welcome news for a few. But in reality, this has been largely meaningless for the broader economy and Pakistans wider population.
Going forward, a new government will have to come up to speed very quickly with tackling two major faultlines, narrowing the fiscal deficit and tackling the current account and trade deficits.
A combination of symbolic and substantive measures will be essential to trim official expenditures. The next prime ministers choice of a small hatchback saloon car as opposed to an expensive luxury vehicle, will make little difference to the budget. But it would mark a step that will trigger a powerful signal. Other similar steps taken with a forceful push will help to inspire confidence.
In tandem, Pakistan must seek to sharply reduce wasteful expenditure across its large sector of public sector companies, which are easy to characterize as more than the proverbial white elephants. As 40 per cent of Pakistanis who remain below the poverty line fail to make their two ends meet, there is no justification for retaining up to 150 government-owned companies which almost all run in loss.
On the other hand, Pakistan must step up its diplomacy focused on the nearby oil-rich Arab world, to speed up employment opportunities for its blue collared workers. This was a path chosen in the 1970s that helped turn a global trade deficit into a current account surplus. But this can not be a long-term solution.
An aggressive push to reform public-sector education is essential to improve opportunities for scores of young people, a large chunk of whom are either unemployed or underemployed. Lifting the quality of the countrys prospective labor force must go hand in hand with meeting two other challenges.
First, a revival of export-oriented industries is essential to step up earnings from exports. This is an area that has received much lip service over decades without a tangible end result coming up.
Second, a country with Pakistans cultivable land profile must see a sharp lift in agricultural produce while imports of food commodities must sharply go down. Pakistan has the land and the conditions to perform much better in this area, though the country has done little to improve its act.
The upcoming political transition will just become a failure unless it is quickly backed with powerful internal reforms. Meanwhile, just celebrating the rising stock market remains meaningless.
Courtesy The News