Netanyahu’s illusory strategy in decline ۔۔۔۔ By Faiqa Salman

In the heat of war, strategies often seem attainable to those who craft them. When Netanyahu launched Israel’s offensive one year ago, it seemed like a calculated gamble—one based on confidence in military, diplomatic, and intelligence dominance. Victory appeared certain. However, as bombs fall and air raid sirens echo a year later, the reality beneath the rubble is stark: these goals are slipping further away, and Israel finds itself entangled in an ever-expanding conflict with no end in sight.

Officially, Israel has killed over 42,000 Palestinians, though some estimates place the number closer to 180,000, including the indirect casualties of war. Yet Israel finds itself struggling against far less advanced and poorer nations, who, despite lacking Israel’s military might, are still managing to put up significant resistance. Israel’s clear strategic objectives include the return of hostages, the complete eradication of Hamas in Palestine, weakening the broader Axis of Resistance, and solidifying its position as the leading power in the region. However, Israel has failed to achieve any of these objectives, and the ongoing war has begun to damage the country internally.
Among the most painful setbacks for the Israeli public is the hostage situation in Gaza. Nearly 100 Israeli citizens are currently being held by Hamas. Despite holding around 3,000 Palestinian prisoners, including women and children, whom Israel could trade for the hostages, the government has chosen not to pursue such an exchange. Instead, reports of torture and rape of Palestinian detainees continue, as has been the case for years. It’s clear that rescuing the hostages is not Netanyahu’s priority, and this has ignited public anger within Israel, fueling a growing sense of mistrust and frustration.

It is surprising that Israel did not foresee the financial and economic fallout from its ongoing “killing spree.” Israel’s finances are under significant strain, with its budget deficit widening as credit rating agencies downgrade the nation’s outlook. Over 40,000 Israeli businesses are anticipated to go bankrupt in the coming months, with tourism coming to a complete standstill and consumption, trade, and foreign investment sharply declining. Government spending and borrowing are skyrocketing to cover the cost of the war, which is projected to exceed $55 billion by next year.
Surely, Israel must have anticipated the inevitable human desire for revenge following its indiscriminate bombing of innocent civilians. The natural outcome of such actions is a cycle of violence and retaliation, which, while Israel may be prepared for militarily, has deep social and psychological repercussions. On October 9, for instance, six Israelis were wounded in a stabbing attack, highlighting the persistence of internal security threats. The war’s toll on resources, public morale, and the economy is a steep price Israel is paying.

Crushing Hamas seemed to be the main Israeli objective, alongside driving Palestinians out of Gaza as a consequence, just like their ancestors were displaced during the Nakba of 1948, never to return home. Yet, Hamas remains in full control of Gaza, despite the devastation caused by Israeli airstrikes. Over 70% of homes in Gaza have been destroyed, and its population endures displacement, disease, and hunger for a second year. Yet, Israel has failed to dismantle Hamas or force Palestinians out of Gaza to clear the way for Israeli expansion. The people of Gaza, however, are determined not to repeat the past displacement. This resilience of Palestinian men and women marks a significant failure for Israel’s military strategy.
Israel’s most advanced intelligence services have meticulously tracked and assassinated Hamas leaders and high-ranking officials, including the head of Hamas, Ismail Haniya. They have bombed these figures even in public places and hospitals, resulting in the deaths of hundreds of civilians as collateral damage. Despite these high-profile assassinations, the question remains: has this strategy advanced Netanyahu’s objectives, or merely deepened the cycle of violence and resistance? Hamas continues to replenish its ranks with new leaders and recruits, proving remarkably resilient in the face of Israel’s assassination campaigns.

Weakening the Axis of Resistance is a problematic challenge Netanyahu seems to be embroiled in. The Houthi strategy, for instance, seems aimed at draining Israel militarily by launching missiles, forcing Israel to intercept them with defense systems that cost millions. The missiles fired from Yemen cost a fraction of the more than $2 million intercept missiles Israel uses in defense. The Houthi strategy engages the international community by threatening vital trade routes and oil fields. The Houthis have damaged Israeli shipping lanes and other targets in recent months, showcasing their ability to strike far beyond Yemen’s borders.
On Israel’s northern front, Hezbollah has kept Israel occupied with cross-border attacks, displacing approximately 80,000 Israelis from the border region near Lebanon. In response, Israel has assassinated Hezbollah leaders, but this has not quelled the violence. Last week, Israel escalated military operations in Lebanon, killing nearly 2,000 Lebanese as part of a ground offensive. While Israel’s overwhelming firepower can inflict heavy casualties, the toll on its military is evident, and no army has an unlimited supply of resources.

Iran has emerged as another major threat, second only to Palestinian resistance. While Iran typically operates through proxies, it has directly attacked Israel twice in the past few months. Israel’s Iron Dome missile defense system has largely intercepted these attacks, but the cost of maintaining this defense is high—far higher than the cost to Iran of launching its missiles. This situation is further complicated by warnings from Israel’s allies, including the U.S. and the U.K., against further escalation with Iran. Regional instability could arise, especially if Iran targets vital sea routes as it has threatened. Middle Eastern countries, though allied with Israel in certain respects, are keen to avoid direct confrontation with Iran.

In this context, the Abraham Accords, which took over a decade of painstaking efforts by Israel and the U.S. to normalize relations with several Arab states, have become almost meaningless. While some Arab leaders may not prioritize the Palestinian cause, as Prince Mohammad Bin Salman admitted, they are keenly aware that their populations do care, and this will limit their ability to openly support Israel. This public sentiment has undermined the purpose of the accords.

Israel has also lost moral support from much of the Western public, even though governments continue to back it. In the U.K., for instance, some of the largest protests in history have erupted against Israeli actions, reflecting a growing disconnect between Western governments and their citizens regarding the Israel-Palestine issue. The Palestinian cause has become the world’s number one human rights issue, with increasing calls for accountability.

The International Court of Justice (ICJ) has issued statements unfavorable to Israel concerning its policies in the occupied Palestinian territories. The court is scrutinizing the legality of Israel’s actions, including settlement expansion, human rights violations, and the occupation of Palestinian land. While the ICJ’s findings are advisory and non-binding, they could influence Israel’s international standing, increasing diplomatic pressure and calls for accountability.
Although Israel has long enjoyed the backing of the world’s most powerful nations, its military and diplomatic efforts seem counterproductive to its long-term interests. The more Israel expands its fight, the more enemies it gains, provoking neighboring countries and the international community. Western allies are already reluctant to involve themselves in direct military conflicts in the region, leaving Israel to bear the war’s costs—financially, militarily, and morally. In asymmetric warfare, as history has often taught, even the most advanced armies can find themselves bogged down in endless wars with no clear path to victory.

In the end, Israel’s strategy appears unsustainable, with its military might being drained across multiple fronts and its victories proving temporary. Prime Minister Netanyahu and his closest ally, the U.S., have yet to achieve any of their objectives. Supporting Israel may also cost U.S. presidential candidates votes, as more of the electorate questions this alignment, making the effort to appease Israel seem futile. Both the U.S. and Israel are losing the war of narratives, as their goals remain elusive, trapping them in a conflict that no amount of firepower can resolve.