Kursk attack: first on Russia after WWII ….. Dr Muhammad Ali Ehsan

Shortage of manpower is a big problem that the Ukrainian military faces. So, what has Ukraine done to address this problem and how are European countries helping Ukraine to address this problem? The Ukrainian fight is now showing a change of method, so is there a change in how European countries want Ukraine to fight back? This change is not difficult to miss and one can sense it in the urgency with which Europe, led by France, is consistently demanding more aggressive posture from Ukraine. This has now finally culminated in Ukraine’s attack on the Russian territory in the Kursk region. Kursk is Russian city, which is almost 530 miles south of Moscow and is 400 miles northwest Donbas region of Eastern Ukraine where the actual fight is taking place. This attack by Ukraine is significant because this is the first time since the end of World War-II that a Russian territory has been attacked. There are four questions that I ask and answer in this write-up. One, what is the change in the pattern of fight in Ukraine and who is behind it? Two, are European troops fighting in Ukraine? Three, why Ukraine has attacked the Russian territory of Kursk? And four, what can be the Russian response?

It seems that Europe, and not the US, took the lead in Ukrainian military preparedness for its current aggression against the Russian city of Kursk. As the American elections approach, there is a growing feeling in the European countries that allowing the results of American elections to dictate European security is a very bad and dangerous idea. The last month polling by Pew Research Center on support for war in Ukraine found a clear split between the Democratic and Republican voters. Only 15% Democrats believe that the US is providing too much assistance to Ukraine whereas almost 50% of Republican voters are convinced about the overwhelming US support to war in Ukraine. It is then no surprise that there is a growing realisation amongst European leaders that if Trump comes to power, he would be under no public pressure to increase the military aid to Ukraine. The growing realisation in European leadership is that European security is a European responsibility which must be ensured with or without the help of the US. France under President Macron is leading the European strategic thinking and seems very assertive in defining a European strategy based on European interests. French National Assembly and Senate has already approved a bilateral security cooperation agreement with Ukraine, committing France to support Ukraine militarily for the next ten years, or until it joins Nato.

Macron was the biggest advocate of talks with Russia when the war began in Ukraine but now the very person who attempted to act as a mediator between Kyiv and Moscow has switched sides and is more focused in taking a lead in redesigning the European security order. His anti-Russian rhetoric is gaining strength and his statements like “now is not the time to be cowardly”, “prospect of sending Western troops to Ukraine should not be excluded” and “Europeans will do everything that we must so that Russia does not win” clearly suggest who is leading the European continental wolf pack.

Now to the second question, are there any Europeans fighting in Ukraine?

First, we must know that there is a French Legion which, though founded in 1831, still exists and is still in service. Run by French officers, its rank and file are generally foreigners. A volunteer who joins the Legion serves for a five-year term after which he can ask for French citizenship. A Ukrainian Legion was also formed just after the outbreak of the war by the Ukrainian Presidential decree offering lucrative salaries and privileges and since then thousands of volunteers from the West have joined to fight the war. Statistics from Russia reveal that over 13,000 foreigners have fought for Kiev out of which 6,000 have already died. On their part the Ukrainian government claims that its international legion constitutes 20,000 fighters from over 50 countries. There are rumours that France has already deployed its foreign legion troops in Ukraine. According to the Spanish newspaper El Espanyol, many volunteers in the Ukrainian legion wish to return to their homeland but cannot do so due to bans on leaving the garrison. Private militias and the legions address the short-term problem of shortage of manpower to fight wars but create a long-term problem of contributing broadly to the creation of a violent and uncivilised world. So, it seems that Ukraine is addressing its manpower shortage by allowing many thousand fighters from European countries to fight in Ukraine but under disclaimer from Europe that reads: “volunteers from West fighting the war in Ukraine are there in their individual capacity and not representing European governments.”

To answer the third question of why Ukraine has attacked a Russian territory, one needs to look at the immediate political, strategic and operational realities of war in Ukraine. Strategically, Ukrainian assault on Kursk will not take the Russian military pressure off the Donbas region nor will Russia, which has additional troops and reserves, need to shift troops to this new battlefront from the Donbas region. Ukrainian ingress in Russian territory of Kursk seems more in line with an attempt to possess a Russian piece of land and be in a bargaining position when the time comes to go to the negotiating table. Maybe, Ukraine knows that war’s end is near.

Finally, what can be the Russian response. Russia sees the Ukrainian Kursk assault as initiation of wider war beyond Ukraine’s borders. All this talk of the volunteers fighting in legions for Ukraine doesn’t bother Russia as this hotchpotch volunteer fighters don’t represent a threat that crosses the Russian redline on Nato involvement in Ukraine. Also, Russia is clear that if any European country including France acts on its own and without Nato backing such a country cannot claim a return support from Nato. The Russian Defense Ministry has already stated: “Whoever they are labelled as, whether they are members of the French armed forces or are just mercenaries, they represent an absolutely legitimate target for our armed forces.”

Considering that shortage of manpower is as a critical Ukrainian problem, how can Ukraine spare troops to attack and occupy Russian territory when it doesn’t have enough to defend its own? It’s one thing to execute quick and surprised mechanised advance on Western aid of wheels and tracks but quite another to sustain and retain the territory with the ground troops that are already in short supply. The world sits with its fingers crossed for the Russian response which will surely come after Russia has evacuated its vulnerable population. The warmongers in the West have won and for now all bets on peace talks are off.

Courtesy Express Tribune