Israel’s delay – reasons …..Aneela Shahzad
The last time Israel retaliated against Iran’s overnight attack of around 300 missiles and drones in April, the retaliation was very inferior to what was being expected. An Iranian spokesperson said Israel had “only made a failed and humiliating attempt to fly quadcopters (drones)” which were shot down.
Perhaps nature took Israel’s revenge when, exactly one month later, in May, the helicopter carrying President Ebrahim Raisi and the foreign minister faced a deadly crash. This notwithstanding what Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu later said on the UN podium, that the “long arms of Israel can reach anywhere in Iran, Middle East”. And what are Israel’s “long arms” if not the spies and assassins trained in target-killing and target-bombing Iranian leaders in Syria, Iraq and Lebanon and inside Iran.
The morality standards of the two people, the Iranians and the Israeli, are obvious: one’s warfare is overt and the other’s covert; one strikes military infrastructure, the other strikes civilian populations and individuals. But, setting morality aside, Israel also boasts of being the most advanced military in the Middle East and Netanyahu has been repeatedly calling his allies to join Israel in a war against Iran. Why then, when the time has become ripe, Israel is delaying its attack? Is it because of incapability or is it because of fear?
As of capability, the global fire power index ranks Iran as having the 14th and Israel as having the 17th most fire power. While Israel has two types of ballistic missiles – Jericho 2 and Jericho 3 – that can go farther than 1,500 km, Iran has a wide range of long-range missiles including Shahab-3, Ghadr, Emad, Khorramshahr-1 and others that can be thrown farther than 1,500 km. This comparison of surface-to-surface ballistic missiles is vital to understand two scenarios.
Firstly, because the air-to-surface warfare that Israel is used to, wherein its jets enter Syrian, Lebanese and Palestinian airspace, beating the hell out of civilian populations, cannot be applied for Iran. The speediest aircraft that Israel has – the US-made F-35 – needs to be refueled midway if it needs to hit a target in Iran and return back to its base in Israel. Since Azerbaijan and the Gulf States have bluntly refused the use of their airspaces or American military bases located on their soil for attacking Iran, it has become out of question that Israel can use its air-to-surface warfare over Iran.
If so, then secondly, Israel has only two types of ballistic missiles that can reach Iran. Obviously not tried before, the Jericho 2 and 3, made with the US assistance must be highly expensive. According to Haaretz, one Jericho missile, without its warhead, costs $10 million. Compared to that, the Iranian missiles Fath, Zolfaghar and Qadr, fired on Oct 1, cost between $500,000 and $1.5 million each. But even if Israel musters up the courage to use these missiles on Iran, it would need to calculate first how many it has. Whereas, reportedly Israel may have a 100 Jericho-2 and a few hundred Jericho-3, Iran reportedly has 3,000 such ballistic missiles. That means for every Jericho fired by Israel, Iran can fire back ten.
But then there is this problem of the size of Israel and the fact that each and every location of military bases and facilities has been pinpointed in drone footage released by Hezbollah. So, while Israel would be firing at blind targets, Iran would know exactly what it is hitting. And while Iran would sustain an amount of beating, tiny Israel would not sustain one day of another Iranian strike if it is targeted and precise.
The reason why Israel would have to strike without knowing where to precisely strike is Iran’s vehement preparation for such a coming war. On the one hand, the continuous sanctions slapped on Iran from the West have forced Iran to develop its own domestic defence manufacturing base for a range of systems, including ballistic missiles, and land- and sea-based vehicles and vessels. This may have been a blessing in disguise as it allowed Iran to develop technology indigenously at low cost and in diversity. On the other hand, weary of being attacked by powerful and technologically advanced enemies, Iran has been building a network of underground tunnels. These tunnels, spread across the country, accommodate bases for munitions, missiles, drones, air force and military units. According to Iranian Tasnim News Agency, “the underground base consists of various sections, such as an alert area, command post, warplane hangars, repair and maintenance center, navigation and airport equipment, and fuel tanks.” This means that a maximum number of Iranian military units are hidden in underground bases and can survive any first-strike.
This means that if Israel makes a first attack on Iran, and its $10 million Jericho does not hit a substantial target, that would be a huge embarrassment. But even if it does hit a target, it does not know that the next time how big will be Iran’s retaliation. Will Iran think of throwing one missile for one, or would it remember all the sanctions, and all the Arab Spring wars, and Afghanistan and Iraq, and think that if it does not give Israel one striking blow and reduce its fire power to zero, it may not survive a second attack, because all of Israel’s allies would have gathered around in its aid by that time!
Talking on phone to Netanyahu last week, Joe Biden promised ‘ironclad support’ and there was speculation that the American President has given a go-ahead to Israel to attack Iran, maybe on its oil facilities. A few days later, Netanyahu said he had told the US that Israel would strike Iranian military, not nuclear or oil, targets. It has been over two weeks and Israel seems to be beating about the bush.
Again, Israeli PM Office said it “will listen to the US but make final decisions based on its national interest”. Perhaps national interest would lead Israel to not make a substantial attack on Iran at this time when it is not sure it can defeat it. Perhaps now would be a time to vouch another task to Israel’s “long arms”, and perhaps if the weather is right, another targeted assassination at the highest ranks would soothe Israel’s resentments, and extend a big war with Iran to a further date!
Courtesy Express Tribune