Indo-Pak CBMs…Aizaz Ahmad Chaudhry
DEVELOPING confidence-building measures is a time-tested practice to reduce tensions between adversaries. The term was first used during the Cold War. Ever since, CBMs have sought to manage the risk of conflict escalation. In that sense, they are a kind of preventive diplomacy.
Since the signing of the 1972 Shimla agreement, India and Pakistan have undertaken several measures to build mutual trust with a view to keeping peace and preventing wars. Although many of these CBMs have helped reduce the risk of military confrontation, the two countries have failed to build a lasting peace, mainly because of deep-rooted mutual distrust. There have been three broad categories of CBMs that have sought to promote peace and security between India and Pakistan: nuclear, conventional, and Kashmir-related.
Although both countries conducted nuclear tests in 1998, they had agreed in 1988 to prohibit attacks against each others nuclear installations and facilities. Three years later, they signed an agreement on the prevention of air space violations. This agreement has been largely respected notwithstanding occasional violations.
CBMs came to dominate the diplomatic discourse of India and Pakistan after the signing of the Lahore Declaration and an MoU on nuclear CBMs in 1999. The process, which was disrupted by the Kargil crisis, resumed in 2004, when the two countries formed expert groups to discuss conventional and nuclear CBMs. Within a few years, two important agreements were concluded: on advance notification of flight testing of ballistic missiles (2005) and on the risk from accidents relating to nuclear weapons (2007). Both remain operational. As a nuclear risk reduction measure, it was agreed in 2007 to establish a hotline between the Pakistani and Indian foreign secretaries, but this could not be put into actual use.
Several CBMs are no longer operational.
The experts group on nuclear CBMs discussed a number of other ideas, which, regrettably, came to naught. These included the exchange of information on peaceful uses of nuclear energy and nuclear safety, early notification of nuclear-related emergencies, bilateral declarations on non-deployment of anti-ballistic missiles, and non-use of outer space for military purposes. The two countries did not engage in discussions on nuclear doctrines. Nor did they create a mechanism to review the implementation of the 1999 Lahore MoU on nuclear CBMs.
Conventionally, two CBMs have worked well to prevent war between the two countries: an understanding reached in 2003 on maintaining the ceasefire along the Line of Control (LoC), which was reaffirmed in February 2021, and a hotline between the DGs of Military Operations.
A few CBMs have remained operational despite Indias policy of no-contact with Pakistan since 2016. For instance, a hotline between the Indian coast guards and Pakistans Maritime Security Agency is operational; the agreement to give advance notice on military exercises, manoeuvres, and troop movement is also being adhered to. The two sides frequently return inadvertent line crossers.
Several CBMs that remained functional for some years are no longer operational. For instance, the Delhi-Lahore bus service agreed in 1999 is not in operation. Nor is the Khokhrapar-Munabao train service agreed in 2006. The passenger and freight rail service between Atari and Lahore remains suspended. An important CBM that was essential for coordinating on border issues (annual meetings of the Indian Border Security Force and Pakistans Rangers) has also become inactive.
A draft agreement on the prevention of incidents at sea was discussed but could not be finalised. Given the importance of the subject, the two countries could make a fresh attempt at an appropriate time to agree on this CBM. They could also agree to hold quarterly flag meetings in selected sectors of the LoC. Another important measure to build mutual confidence would be interactions between the national defence universities and think tanks of the two countries.
Between 2005 and 2008, a number of Kashmir-related CBMs were agreed and implemented in order to bring relief to divided Kashmiri families. A few meeting points along the LoC were also agreed. A bus service started to operate between Muzaffarabad and Srinagar. Trade between Kashmiris on both sides of the LoC also started. Regrettably, these CBMs have been suspended by the Indian side.
CBMs work well only if there is willingness amongst adversaries to reduce the risk of conflict and war. Failed peace processes and hostile rhetoric have undermined mutual confidence. At this time, the two countries are totally estranged. However, whenever they re-engage, the considerable work done for CBMs during the past few decades can provide a useful foundation for the building of a durable peace.
Courtesy Dawn