Expanding BRICS….. Aizaz Ahmad Chaudhry
BRICS, WHICH seeks to promote cooperation amongst Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa, is expanding its ambit. The recently held summit in Johannesburg (Aug 22-24) invited Argentina, Egypt, Ethiopia, Iran, Saudi Arabia and the UAE to join BRICS.
Three questions are dominating the discourse on this development: will an expanded BRICS enable the Global South to counter-balance the Western-dominated world of politics, trade and finance? How will India reconcile its presence in BRICS with its strategic partnership with the US? And, what does BRICS Plus mean for Pakistan?
Geopolitics: There is no denying that the rise of China, India and other Asian economies has brightened prospects for the Global South to challenge Western dominance in the prevailing world order. Since the 1960s, the developing world has aspired to a new international economic order. G77 and the Non-Aligned Movement were large, unwieldy groups, unable to accomplish much for the Global South. An expanded BRICS, which represents a sizable percentage of the world’s population and economic growth, seems better poised to represent the interests of the Global South.
However, it would be naïve to expect a diverse group like BRICS Plus to be anti-West or even a serious challenge to the latter’s dominance. For instance, de-dollarisation may be an aspiration of some BRICS countries, but the actual shift towards other currencies would require more time and effort. Nearly $5 trillion is held in overseas central banks, including almost $1tr in the Bank of China. Likewise, global supply chains remain critical for the economic health of all countries. The leading lights of the expanded BRICS are also members of G20, which will be meeting in a summit shortly under India’s presidency. For their part, Western countries are also inclined towards de-risking their economies rather than decoupling from China.
What does an expanded BRICS mean for Pakistan?
India: Despite its differences with China, India has chosen to play along with BRICS because it coincides with its long-cherished desire to assume the leadership of the Global South. When Chandrayan 3 landed on the moon, Prime Minister Narendra Modi attributed this success to the Global South. India is, however, in a bind. Over the past two decades, it has deepened its partnership with the US and built high stakes in the US-led Indo-Pacific Strategy and the Quad. On the other hand, it often takes positions unfavourable to the West, such as in the Russia-Ukraine war. So far, India has played a balancing act, citing strategic autonomy; but tough choices may lie ahead.
Pakistan: The people of Pakistan are disappointed their country did not receive an invitation to the Johannesburg Summit and was not included in BRICS Plus. The Foreign Office (FO) spokesperson responded to their queries on Aug 25, stating that “Pakistan will examine the latest developments and make a determination about its future engagement with the group”. She added: “Pakistan is an ardent supporter of multilateralism… .” If that be the case, it would make sense for Pakistan to be a member of the expanded BRICS, which is a rising multilateral organisation within the Global South.
Last year too, Pakistan’s absence was noted at the high-level development dialogue on the eve of the BRICS summit hosted by China. Two dozen countries attended. Pakistan’s participation was blocked by BRICS member India. The FO at that time had expressed the hope that future engagement of the organisation would be based on the principle of “inclusivity”. However, this year, while over 30 other countries were invited to attend the summit, mostly from the Global South, Pakistan was not. Nevertheless, Pakistan was invited to a seminar ahead of the summit, where Senator Mushahid Hussain represented its desire to be a part of BRICS Plus.
India’s hostility to Pakistan is painful but understandable. India’s leadership has often used Pakistan to fetch votes in Hindu-majority areas by whipping up a threat perception around cross-border terrorism. It would be safe to conclude that even if Pakistan had applied for BRICS membership, India would have opposed it.
Another factor that undermines the prospects of Pakistan joining BRICS is its own dire economic situation, coupled with political instability, violent extremism and weak law and order. The countries in the BRICS family will stand up to Indian objections when they determine that Pakistan has something tangible to bring to the table. There is no doubt that Pakistan is situated at the centre of the expanded BRICS’ economic geography. Pakistan can, for instance, become a genuine hub connecting South Asia with Western and Central Asia. However, for that to happen, Pakistan must first pull up its own economy and consider opening its door to east-west connectivity, which would complement north-south connectivity well.
The writer is a former foreign secretary.
Courtesy Dawn, September 3rd, 2023