Deep state and American politics… Shahzad Chaudhry

The two principal political protagonists were well defined, except when the 82-year-old President Biden decided against running for reelection against the 78-year-old Donald Trump who has returned to the fray after a gap of four years. Trump is Trump with a colourful record both as the President and as a person. Yet the Republicans thought of him as the more energetic and more populist candidate of the two who could win them back the White House. Biden was considered an ageing, tiring, senile and a forgetful candidate who had lost both his verve and his spright.

The Presidents are usually the presumptive nominees if they have another term to contest. When Biden decided to withdraw it was unprecedented and hence a surprise, yet not a surprise because most on the Democrat side of the contest wished him to leave the field to someone who could have even or better chances to retain the White House. He was thus eulogised in laudable terms even as he was being kicked out of the running in what was being considered an almost certain defeat for the Democrats. Biden had turned into a sicker copy of himself and increasingly faltered on the global stage. Yet when he threw in the towel it was a day of bewilderment in political terms. Only on two earlier occasions in history had a sitting president decided not to seek another term.

Biden had done well domestically, on the economic front and the USA has felt like a country on rails after the twin shocks of Covid and threatening recession. But with increasing age he had turned into a grandfather who could relate tricks from an old man’s repertoire but was not the person that relatives wanted on display to visiting neighbours. It took quite an effort to convince him to withdraw. His wife and his close family though believed that in his bid for reelection stood the chance for their collective good. Equally amusingly, Dr Jill Biden, President’s wife, was called for elderly abuse. (Pun was surely intended).

Yet, it was the possibility of Trump’s success in the election that became the trigger of concern on both sides of the aisle where some Republicans too openly beseeched the Democrats to review their nomination. Given the late state in the campaign it carried its own predicament, but a victorious Trump was a bigger risk. And this is why. Trump has declared that on Day-1 in his next tenure he will withdraw support to Ukraine which he feels has drained off billions of precious American dollars. If it implicitly delivers a victory to Putin with whom he claims an affable understanding and relationship so be it. America and ‘making it great again’ comes first to him. Without American support Ukraine and Zelenskyy has no legs to stand on against the superpower might of Russia. Ukraine till date has been collectively propped against Russia to keep Russia at bay from flexing its muscles in a newfound zeal to expand its perimeter of security against an encroaching NATO. From a deep state perspective, a Trump win would dislodge US’ strategy.

Trump’s two other policy stands differ significantly from how policy gurus, ‘deep state’ thinkers and strategists prescribe: these relate to China and US policy on Israel. On Israel, Trump may not differ much except that he would ask Netanyahu to expedite the end game and use whatever will help him achieve that end. Trump’s approach will put paid to the declared two-state policy that USA has publicly espoused and take an already obnoxious and dastardly war to even higher levels of intensity failing the morality test. With that will also go down the ultimate US aim to enable Israel the credibility needed to act as the minder of its interests in the ME failing to find US’ proxy in the ME the desired eminence and acceptability. The design is grand enough to have withstood the tenures of both Trump and Biden. Trump would derail the entire effort.

On China, Trump is far more aggressive than a revamped Biden who in his turn did not wish to appear a wimp after Trump in his first tenure had slapped tariffs and restrictions on China in a bid to slow and weaken its economy. Trump’s affability towards Putin while attacking China on multifarious economic fronts was a typical recourse to super-power trinity games. Biden kept those pressures going only slowly relenting on some when faced with the reality of an imminent recession following Covid and global economic slowdown. While Biden kept a more offensive face on Russia, he tried working with China through his interlocutors to keep the economy improving globally and for the US. Trump’s vow to raise tariffs on Chinese goods to the tune of 70 per cent to many in the US is a sure recipe to invite deepening recession. Inflation will be the other consequence slowing down American recovery and growth. Clearly American deep state is not in on this ride.

Enter the Deep State. It needed Biden to abdicate his option for the second term and let Kamala Harris in as an establishment protg. She will continue the policies of Biden aligned with American deep state objectives. Given this reading it may seem Harris has more than a fair chance to carry the November election while most odds are stacked against Trump despite his populist appeal – Republicans have their own set of anti-Trumpers who may simply abstain on the voting day or vote Harris is a few cases. All to keep Trump out. Yet it is the people who will decide the outcome. Deep state can only set the game up.

What is deep state then? In bringing Biden to submit there was an unannounced but vehement pressure of the Democrat establishment. It constitutes of former Presidents, Democrat stalwarts and think-tanks who design Democrat policy and give it the words for enunciation. Just as there is a Republican establishment which feels to win back the White House, the pinnacle of American power, Trump is their best bet. Once in hand they can then force Trump to toe their line, they hope. Deep state sits over both establishments and has contributors and constituents from both sides in former Presidents, retired and serving CIA heads and deep state policy thinkers who keep above power politics to focus entirely on what is good for America. That it reflects what is genuinely good for the US, its people and retains American primacy in the world rarely varying from how a matter is largely perceived by the thinking quarters. The match-up in November is thus between Deep State/ Establishment appointee and Donald Trump’s populism. The people will decide who wins.

Courtesy The Express Tribune