Back to the future…Abbas Nasir
WITH a maximum of seven weeks to go before the existing assemblies are dissolved and a caretaker set-up takes over to preside over the affairs of the country, including nationwide elections, there is still great uncertainty over the emerging scenario.
The uncertainty owes itself in equal measure to the May 9 events as well as the vote of no-confidence (VoNC) against the PTI-led government in April last year. To pre-empt the vote, then prime minister Imran Khan deployed cleverly crafted allegations about a US-backed regime change conspiracy against him.
Before the VoNC, the PTI lost so many by-elections that the PML-N was seen as the frontrunner in any future elections in the country. Once ousted from government, the PTI unleashed a Trump-like narrative which may have been fabricated and not facts-based, but seemed to have won the party more support than it ever had in the past.
The PTI surprised all observers in Punjab and beyond by notching up near-total domination in the Punjab Assembly by-elections, though the double game played by the former army chief may have had a role in that.
The next election will also likely be carefully calibrated like the one in 2018.
It was clear that unlike Nawaz Sharifs falling out with the establishment, when the judiciary had been seen to cooperate with it to punish him and no state institution was on his side, Imran Khan was not friendless and alone, with a section of the courts allegedly lending him critical support, along with elements within other key institutions and departments.
The judgement of the Supreme Court of Pakistan on its interpretation of the defection clause, according to many experts, went beyond mere interpretation and amounted to the rewriting of the Constitution.
The SC ruled that not only the defecting members would be disqualified as the Constitution mandated but also that their vote against the party directive would not count. Some political analysts point to that judgement as being at the root of all the political instability today, which has pretty much left the economy crippled.
The establishment reacted like only it knows how to. It can be said unambiguously that what may have been a subtle exercise till May 9 last, became a brutal dismantling of the party following the events of that day, when the PTI leadership was led to believe grossly exaggerated accounts of support within the security set-up and overplayed its hand.
The writing is on the wall. The next election will also likely be carefully calibrated like the one in 2018 and will have to produce what former military ruler Gen Ziaul Haq once called positive results. If that isnt possible to manage in the few weeks remaining before the Constitution-mandated exercise, then the fate of the polls may well be in jeopardy.
Admittedly, not being a legal eagle, this columnist isnt sure how any delay can be effected without violating the Constitution. But then, that poor document looks more and more forlorn than ever, with many of its contents being disregarded at will by various powerful quarters, each one of whom has taken an oath to protect it.
One has heard talk of a declaration of emergency, thus prolonging the tenure of the incumbents by a year; one has also heard informed analysts examining the prospects of a longer-than-mandated caretaker government in order to stabilise the economy and to enable the establishment to complete the scrapping of its failed project, in the words of its critics at least.
Simultaneous with those rumours, the fate of Pakistani politics, and consequently its shirtless multitudes, is also being discussed this weekend in Londons plush Mayfair residential district and a couple of opulent country homes, not far from there, with one being in Hampshire.
There is every possibility that the game plan for the elections is being fine-tuned. The various elements in any such exercise may include alliances and seat adjustments, as also narrowing down recommendations for the caretaker government.
As his brother, the prime minister, heads home after reportedly meeting him in London, Nawaz Sharif is all set to fly out of the UK and head to the Middle East, with the UAE and Saudi Arabia said to be on his itinerary for the next three weeks. There is speculation that he may eventually head home.
Political commentators have underlined the significance attached to Mr Sharifs return to Pakistan ahead of the elections, even if he has to spend some time in prison. His presence can galvanise support and dilute somewhat the pain of economic hardship suffered by the masses for which both the PTI and PML-N are responsible, but the bulk of the fallout will obviously be on the incumbents.
What we are witnessing today is what was fashioned in 2018, a hybrid set-up, albeit with different characters. If things continue heading in this very direction, then it will be safe to assume that we should prepare ourselves to usher in a similar system post-elections whether held on time or otherwise.
The setting up of the multi-tiered Special Investment Facilitation Council and deciding who sits on it at various levels is indication enough of the shape of things to come. One can be sure that in the post-election scene it will be desired that a fragmented parliament and, therefore, a weak coalition-type government is formed so that no politician tries to accumulate too much power in their hands and it remains centred elsewhere.
Ironically, contrary to expectations, the failed experiment of the recent years is unlikely to lead to more meaningful representative rule on the rebound, but seems headed to deliver a more diluted democracy. Even then, all who have aspired to a share of that pie seem happy with it. So, here is what I hope for.
The coming months and years should see some economic stabilisation so that the challenges of the poor are lessened, even if marginally. Since the purpose of the disappearances, arbitrary arrests and detentions will have been served, these shall end. For now, wishing for anything more would be too audacious.
The writer is a former editor of Dawn.
abbas.nasir@hotmail.com
Courtesy Dawn, June 25th, 2023