An Israel-Hezbollah war — outcomes and implications…Ozer Khalid


An all-out war between Hezbollah and Israel would unleash new threat theatres and vectors for Israel. The IDF will have to deal with multiple new war-fronts: Hezbollahs ballistic and artillery threat from the north, Hamas (still) from the south and Houthi firepower which imperils Israels Eastern flank via the Red Sea.

The stakes get higher. A low-intensity skirmish escalates into a full-blown war with a nuclear Israel having a trigger-happy fascist PM at the helm is deeply disconcerting. If the IDF attacks via the Golan Heights (which seems increasingly imminent), Hezbollah will deploy a multi-tiered assault against Northern Israel. Iran may get roped in. The US presently erecting an intelligence/military outpost in Gaza (cloaked as a floating aid pier) will fully assist the IDF and Israels Elite Special Ops Units like Sayeret Matkal Unit 154 and Shayetet 13. In retaliation, Hezbollah would launch ATGMs such as the Kornet, near the contested Shebaa Farms, between the Blue Line and Litani River (very strategic to Lebanons agriculture, irrigation, industrial and water base).

Hezbollah has already done a lot of strategic damage to Israel, from striking the Meron air control base to targeting their other military installations in Northern Israel. Hezbollahs (pre-emptive) missiles are likely to attack Israeli towns like Kiryat Shmona (an electrical, industrial and tourism hub in the Hula Valley) Nabatieh and Ghajar (illegally occupied by Israel). Hezbollah is likely to ignite Katyusha rockets (as it commonly does in the Golan) and may deploy SRBMs like the Fateh-110 which can strike right till Northern Negev (a cultural epicenter) and MRBMs (Raad and Zilzal). Israels swift retort would most likely be striking Bazourieh, the Aadous plain (home to Hezbollah warehouses), Buday village (in Baalbek) and the Bekaa Valley  all Hezbollah strongholds.

The IDF would relentlessly target Lebanons southern and eastern flanks and also take aim at Aleppo and Eastern Syria (targeting Hezbollahs and IRGCs assets and weapon depots).

The units that would become most active will be Hezbollahs Special Ops Redwan Regiment 125 which will bitterly be pitted against Israels GOC 5 Corps as well as the 869th Shahaf Field Intelligence Battalion (which protects Israel from Lebanon) and the 595th Ait (meaning Eagle) Field Intelligence Battalion which would be most active in combat.

Strategic and tactical alliances will be formed (even if temporarily as in any war). Hezbollah will draw closer to IRGC regional entities and assets. Hezbollah would join hands with al-Jamah al-Islamiyah and the elite Quwwat al-Fajr (Dawn Forces) in Lebanon who are Sunni forces close to Turkiye and Qatar  bridging a Sunni-Shia rivalry (for now). Hezbollah would intensify rapport with Hamass Lebanon wing known as the Talai Tawfan al-Aqsa (Vanguards of the Al-Aqsa Flood) and bolster arms deals with IRGC factions in Syria and Iraq, smuggled through the Bekaa Valley where munitions would be stored to strike Israel as required.

Just like the Gaza Marine, where Tel Aviv has confiscated Palestinian offshore natural gas reserves, similarly, for a while now, Israel has been eyeing up Lebanons Block 9, its crude oil and offshore oil and gas exploration prospects. Lebanons Levant Basin has 25 trillion cubic feet (Tcf) of natural gas reserves.

Even though Hezbollahs APCs are now equipped with an APS Trophy, which means they can, at times, get past the Iron Dome (Israels Counter-Rocket, Artillery and Mortar shield), also launching multiple rockets at once overwhelms the Iron Dome lowering its interception potential.

Despite all this, it is Israels air power thatll give them an upper edge, as Hezbollahs AAMs protection radius are limited in area, size and scope. For instance, Israels fighter jets struck two Hezbollah military command centres in Baalbek, an army compound in Khiam, and infrastructure in Bint Jbeil and Nabi Chit.

An all-out war is unwise for Israel as Hezbollah is much more resilient, potent, trained, numerous and weaponised as compared to Hamas. Hezbollah can inflict significant damage on Israel. It can strike lethal industrial chemicals in the Ramat Hovav Zone that would trigger toxic chemical clouds across Northern Israel. Hezbollah also accumulated an arsenal of shore-to-sea missiles like the 300km range (Russian) Yakhont missile capable of reaching all of Israels coastline which may be utilised to strike Israels recently erected (controversial) gas-extraction rigs at the Leviathan gas field in the Mediterranean.

Hezbollah can imperil commercial shipping to and from Israels ports. Witness how the Red Sea and Bal al-Mandab Strait are already jeopardized: a Hezbollah-Houthi alliance can disrupt Israels prime shipping lifeline to Eilat Port, perched at the nerve-centre of Jordans sole coastal access point at Aqaba, providing Tel Aviv an Eastward sea-route coursing via the Suez. Hezbollah can similarly disrupt Israels Mediterranean ports in Haifa (as Israels west borders the Mediterranean, and eastern borders are sealed by its Arab neighbours, Haifa is Israels pivotal gateway to the rest of the world) and Ashdod port (a financial and maritime corridor to Israel, and very close to main commercial arteries and highways).

Hezbollah can now take a sharp aim at Israels economy; disrupt maritime trading; scramble air communications (Hezbollah has already done that by targeting Merons air-control base) with the world; and short-circuit a huge chunk of its power production (for instance, Israel Electric Companys power generation plants) harming factories and other key economic activities via rocket artillery and missiles in lieu of aircraft.

With more than 32,000 (mostly children) already dead in Gaza, how many more lives must perish for humanity to prevail? A timely and resilient diplomatic intervention is necessary by the global community, along with a permanent ceasefire in Gaza, with a path to Palestinian statehood, once and for all, before the entire Middle East goes up in scorched flames.

Courtesy The Express Tribune