Africa could come to the rescue of the aging world….Shahid Javed Burki

Big change is coming to the world. This is not entirely because of global warming. Change is also occurring because of a sharp decline in the rate of human fertility. In the developed world, women are having fewer children than ever before. Demographers have determined 2.1 children per woman as a critical threshold below which the size of the population would begin to decline. In North America, Europe and Australia the rate is well below this level with the result that populations in most of these countries are declining in size. With decline comes aging, that means fewer working people in the populations. Immigration is the only way to address this problem, a subject to which I will come little later in this short essay.

The world population is becoming more African. The continent of Africa has the fastest growing population in the world. By 2050, one in four people in the world will be African. The continent’s population is projected to nearly double to 2.5 billion over the next quarter century, which according to economic experts would radically reshape Africa’s relationship with the world. In 1950, Africans made up 8 percent of the world population. By 2050, the continent’s share will increase three-fold, reaching close to one-quarter of the world total. At least one-third of all young people — defined as those between the ages of 15 to 24 years — will be African. The median age — the level at which one half of the population is above or below that age — in Africa is 19 years. In India, the world’s most populous country, the median age is 28 years, in Pakistan it is 24, in China and the United States it is 38 years.

Some experts call this demographic change “youth quake” that will shake the globe because of the explosion in the number of young people living in Africa. The continent has many cultures and with cultural differences come demographic trends. Africa has 54 countries that together cover an area larger than China, Europe, India and the United States combined. Africa is also the world’s most rapidly urbanising continent on earth. Within the next decade, Africa will have the world’s largest work force, surpassing China and India. By the 2040s it will account two out of every five children born on the planet earth.

The growing size of the African population has increased its political weight in the world. In September 2023, Africa was invited to join the Group of 20 nations, the G20, that held their annual summit in India. The continent took a seat at the same table as the European Union. According to a recent essay on the growing African population in The New York Times, “businesses are chasing Africa’s tens of millions of new consumers emerging every year, representing untapped markets for cosmetics, organic foods, even champagne. Hilton plans to open 65 new hotels on the continent within five years. Africa’s population of millionaires, the fastest growing on earth, is expected to double to 768,000 by 2027, the bank Credit Suisse estimates.”

High living has come to the main cities of Africa. For instance, dinner at Sushi Mitsuki, a new restaurant in a neighborhood with a rising skyline In the Kenyan capital of Nairobi, starts at $200 per person. “Africa is entering a period of truly staggering change,” said Edward Paice, director of the African Research Institute in London and the author of the book, Why African Demography Sold Matter to the World. “The world is changing,” he added, “and we need to start reimagining Africa’s place in it. Vitality in Africa cane be contrasted with the problems posed by the aging of populations in Europe. Caregivers in Italy which is expected to have 12 percent fewer people by 2050 are experimenting with robots to look after the aged. The prime minister of Japan, where the median age is nearly 50, more than twice that in Pakistan, warned in a speech given in January that his society is on the verge of dysfunction.”

There is also a difference in the political structure of the continent. As the analysis done by The New York Times on the demographic situation in Africa from which I have already quoted states: Africa, a young continent in terms of the age of its population is run by old men. The average age of African leaders is 63 years. Five African leaders have held political power for more than three decades. Under their grip, democracy has fallen to its lowest point in decades. Half of all Africans live in countries considered “not free” by Freedom House, a think-tank that tracks political trends in the world.

Africa’s young population could rescue Europe from its demographic dilemma. However, for that to happen, the European continent would need to go through dramatic political change. Most countries in the area need young workers to maintain economic dynamism. There is plenty of evidence available that the infusion of young people through migration helps the European nations. For instance, the government headed by Chancellor Angela Merkel allowed more than a million people to leave the troubled countries of the Middle East and take up residence in Germany. Most came from Syria; most were young and reasonably well-educated. They were easily absorbed in the enterprises in the private sector that were being hurt by worker shortages. A study carried out the Organization of Economic Cooperation and Development, the OECD, estimated that the arrival of these refugees added 3 percent to the increase in the rate of growth in the country’s gross domestic product. Over the medium term, defined as the next five years, this addition is estimated to be 5 percent.

However, there is reluctance to allow a large flow of migrants from Africa. Here, skin colour is a factor. Most Africans seeking entry into Europe are black and not welcome to the continent. Resistance to African migration to the continent has brought about political change in a number of European countries, most notable Italy, one of the nearest points of entry across the Mediterranean Sea for North Africans. Religion is also a factor; most Africans seeking entry into southern parts of Europe are of Islamic faith. Their arrival has led to the development of Islamophobia in the continent.

Courtesy The Express Tribune, November 6th, 2023.