Expectations from Trump’s Return by Muhammad Mohsin Iqbal

As the world watches the return of President Donald Trump to office, a range of expectations and cautious optimism emerge on the international stage, especially from Pakistan and its regional neighbors in the Middle East. President Trump’s previous term showcased a distinctive approach to foreign policy—one marked by unpredictable decisions, a focus on “America First” policies, and a mixed legacy of both diplomatic breakthroughs and heightened tensions. In his new term, global actors anticipate that Trump will navigate regional challenges with renewed vigor, aiming to balance his national priorities with pressing international issues. Countries like Pakistan are especially interested in how his leadership might affect regional stability, security cooperation, and economic ties.

For Pakistan, a second Trump administration presents both opportunities and challenges. While Trump’s previous stance on Pakistan showed ambivalence, there remains hope that he might work toward a more constructive relationship this time around. In the past, Trump’s administration held a hardline position on Pakistan’s role in counterterrorism efforts, voicing concerns about security and support for regional stability. However, there were also positive signals, such as the 2020 United States-Taliban peace deal, which Pakistan facilitated, leading to the eventual U.S. withdrawal from Afghanistan. This role in fostering peace efforts could serve as a basis for improved diplomatic and security relations between Pakistan and the U.S., where mutual interests in counterterrorism and stability may once again come into focus.

Furthermore, economic cooperation is an area that Pakistan hopes to expand under Trump’s new term. Although Trump’s previous administration did not prioritize economic engagements with Pakistan, his policies often leaned toward bilateral deals that could offer opportunities for countries willing to engage. Pakistan may seek more favorable terms in trade and investment, especially in sectors such as agriculture, technology, and renewable energy. With Pakistan facing economic challenges, a focus on strengthening trade ties with the U.S. could be crucial. Additionally, Pakistan hopes that Trump’s administration will acknowledge Pakistan’s importance as a strategic partner in South Asia, a region becoming increasingly vital to global geopolitics.

The Middle East remains a region of particular interest to Trump and his foreign policy team. The previous Trump administration recognized Jerusalem as Israel’s capital, brokered the Abraham Accords, and imposed heavy sanctions on Iran, decisions that polarized opinion across the region. Expectations are high regarding how Trump will now approach key Middle Eastern issues, particularly the Palestinian cause, Lebanon’s stability, and Iran’s regional influence. For Palestinians, there remains hope that the U.S. will play a more balanced role in fostering peace with Israel. Trump’s earlier stance was clearly in favor of Israel, but his legacy includes the Abraham Accords, which, despite their controversies, showed that new forms of engagement were possible. Palestinians are hopeful that Trump might reconsider policies that previously appeared one-sided, encouraging a more just approach that acknowledges Palestinian sovereignty and rights.

In Lebanon, the hope is for greater American involvement in the country’s recovery from years of economic instability, political gridlock, and social upheaval. Trump’s administration previously placed pressure on Hezbollah and took a firm stance on limiting Iranian influence in Lebanon, moves that polarized local opinion. Moving forward, there is an expectation that the U.S. will offer more comprehensive support to help Lebanon stabilize without exacerbating sectarian tensions. By adopting a more balanced approach, Trump’s administration could help mitigate internal divisions within Lebanon, supporting a recovery that respects the country’s complex social fabric.

The re-election of Trump brings with it concerns in Iran, as Trump’s previous term saw the U.S. withdrawal from the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) and a series of escalating sanctions that crippled Iran’s economy. It remains uncertain whether Trump will pursue a renewed deal or maintain pressure on Tehran, a policy that often-strained relations across the region. Many hope that Trump will opt for dialogue over confrontation, potentially re-engaging Iran in discussions that prioritize regional stability over rivalry. Should Trump shift towards a more diplomatic approach, this could contribute significantly to easing tensions not only between the U.S. and Iran but also among other regional powers.

Perhaps one of the most pressing areas for Pakistan and South Asia is the long-standing issue of Kashmir. During his last administration, Trump offered to mediate between India and Pakistan, a move that drew both criticism and support. For Pakistan, there is hope that Trump will leverage his influence to promote a just and peaceful solution to the Kashmir conflict, which has been a major source of tension between the two nuclear-armed neighbors. The Trump administration previously aligned closely with India, viewing it as a strategic partner in countering Chinese influence in the region. However, if Trump seeks a more balanced approach, his administration could play a role in fostering dialogue on Kashmir, recognizing the aspirations of the Kashmiri people while encouraging diplomatic engagement between India and Pakistan. This would be a significant shift that could not only ease tensions in South Asia but also reinforce America’s role as a mediator in global conflict resolution.

Trump’s party, the Republican Party, has generally championed strong military alliances and economic self-interest. However, the party’s conservative principles also emphasize respect for national sovereignty and bilateral relations, two elements that may shape Trump’s foreign policy this term. By focusing on bilateral ties rather than extensive multilateral engagements, Trump might prioritize individual relationships, enabling Pakistan and other nations to negotiate on equal terms. This emphasis on direct engagements could allow countries like Pakistan to advocate for their unique strategic interests and seek a more balanced partnership with the U.S.

In sum, the world approaches Trump’s return with mixed expectations, hopeful yet cautious. For Pakistan, there is the potential for stronger economic and security ties, a more balanced approach to regional conflicts, and support for diplomatic solutions in South Asia. In the Middle East, hopes revolve around a fairer approach to the Palestinian issue, constructive involvement in Lebanon, and potentially renewed talks with Iran. If Trump’s administration takes a pragmatic approach, it could open new avenues for cooperation and understanding, fostering a legacy of stability and mutual respect that would benefit not only America but its global partners as well. As Trump prepares to navigate these complex issues, the world watches with anticipation, hoping his leadership will prioritize lasting peace and cooperation.