TAPI progression and prospect of Pakistan-Iran gas pipeline…Ishtiaq Ali Mehkri

Central Asia and South Asia are home to a cobweb of energy pipelines, but many are a victim of realpolitik. Bilateral disputes and meddling of extra-territorial forces are a constant that have ruptured geo-economics, leaving behind the resource-rich countries in a dilemma of their own. The energy-starved region, however, is contemplating to overcome constraints and a number of trans-regional megaprojects are on the anvil. They include CASA-1000, TAPI and Iran-Pakistan Gas Pipeline (formerly Iran-Pakistan-India), apart from several rail and road network schemes and bilateral ventures of gas transmission such as the $2.5 billion Pakistan Steam Gas Pipeline project involving Russia and Pakistan.

Geo-economics, nonetheless, got a shot in the arm as the 1,814 km TAPI gas pipeline project graduated into its next orbit. It connects Turkmenistan, through Afghanistan, to Pakistan and India. The completion of the pipeline-laying inside Turkmenistan, and its aperture now ready for transit through restive Afghanistan, is a good omen. The $10 billion multinational trans-regional initiative had seen ups and downs since 2015, and been hostage to lawlessness in Afghanistan for almost a decade. TAPI is a bonanza for the energy-starved region, and the good point is that it reconnects Pakistan and India in a consortium of economics after being made to bite the dust in a similar trilateral Iran-Pakistan-India (IPI) gas pipeline arrangement.

The euphoria among Afghans was worth mentioning as the Taliban 2.0 went on to declare a public holiday as Herat celebrated commissioning of the project on its soil. It is a win-win deal for Kabul as apart from receiving 16 per cent gas originating from Galkynysh gas field in Turkmenistan, it will also collect a staggering $500 million per annum as transit fee. The fact that the strife-torn state kept its cool and succeeded in convincing the stakeholders to go ahead with the pipeline despite upheavals across its territory is commendable, and has lessons for Pakistan that could not stand pressure from the US owing to a regime of sanctions on Tehran.

The gas pipeline traversing Central Asia to South Asia is the first of its kind post-Cold War regional amalgamation. It also underscores how strongly economic temptations override politics, and the regime in Afghanistan without de jure recognition is part and parcel of a legal instrument.

The pipeline will see around 33 billion cubic metres of natural gas each year extracted from gas fields in southeast Turkmenistan, and will be pumped through Herat and Kandahar before crossing into the Balochistan province in Pakistan and ending in Fazilka in Indian Punjab. Pakistan and India will each purchase 42 per cent of the gas deliveries. It is surprising that no eyebrows were raised in the western states, irrespective of the fact that Central Asia is pro-Russia and Afghanistan is in a quagmire of instability.

Thus, there is an opportunity for Pakistan as TAPI comes full circle. With Islamabad under compulsion to buy expensive LNG to overcome its domestic and industrial demands, all it needs is to put its foot down and go ahead with the Iran-Pakistan pipeline. It is regrettable that the trilateral $7.5 billion IPI pipeline withered in thin air as Delhi walked away from it, and Pakistan is yet to complete an 80 km pipeline from Gwadar to the Iranian border. Tehran on its part has invested more than $2 billion and has brought the energy pipeline at the mouth of Pakistan, only to rust it beneath the dirt.

The incapacity of Pakistan to take a call on the gas pipeline with Iran has led to straining of relations with the Islamic Republic. Tehran is now under an international obligation to slap a penalty of more than $18 billion for dishonouring the deal, and this fixation has also led to renewed tensions with Washington, whom Islamabad had failed to convince for a waiver. With the pendulum swinging astray, Pakistan’s genuine energy needs are jeopardised and the vibrancy of connecting the respective states in geo-economics – especially Iran and Pakistan & Pakistan and India – has come to a naught. Pakistan must opt for tactful diplomacy and a principled sovereign stance to overcome this dilemma.

Courtesy The Express Tribune